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Freaky February: Red Wings Lose When They Outshoot Their Opponents

 02/19/2019 - 00:15

In nine games this month, the Red Wings have four wins and five losses. That's not at all surprising.

But this was a little surprising. In all five losses, the Red Wings outshot their oppnent. In three of the four wins, the Red Wings were outshot.

During those five losses, the Red Wings have a grand CF% of 56.1 and a SF% of 57.6. In the wins, their CF% is a lowly 45 and their SF% is only slightly better, at 45.5.

It's not really that farfetched. Teams that are behind throw caution to the wind for offense. Teams that are ahead tend to avoid unnecessary chances.

But it does make you wonder about the real value of advanced stats like corsi and fenwich. Is this February run a statistical fluke? Likely. I don't have time to dig in. But I did find this interesting Anthony Scultore article on corsi, as it relates to winning, on the Forever Blueshirts blog.

He looked at four years of NHL results and came to this conclusion.

So there you have it, the statement that better corsi/fenwick stats means more wins is inaccurate. While they do provide a different way to look at how a team may be playing, it can’t be directly linked to winning and losing hockey games.

Sure makes you wonder about the value of corsi as an "advanced stat." Sure. It tells you the puck is probably going in the right direction when a player is on the ice. But how much of that is due to a losing team going hard for a goal or a winning team sitting back and playing defense?

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Tran Longmoore
Tran Longmoore is operator of RedWingsNow

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